Ahahaha, a timeframe from whence emerges fuel for my theory.
First you have to know that I suspect Hoenheim of having much to do with the homunculi. This is based on my idea that there are no minor characters (except that chick from 26, which sucked).
|15 yrs ago||Edward Elric is born; Alphonse is conceived (thereabouts).|
Bruce attempts human transmutation.
The war has not started yet.
|13 yrs ago||War breaks out because of a military "blunder" that was probably a setup.|
Sometime between Alphonse's conception and about now, Hoenheim takes off.
|7 years ago||Incomplete philstones are given to the state alchemists for use on the battlefield.|
Bruce turns himself into a human philstone (or at least tries to -- he's all naked and crazy here)
Roy kills Winry's parents.
Dr Marco takes off
|3 years ago||Elrics try to HT their mom|
Scar goes looking for the answer to what the hell that crap is on his (brother's) arm.
OK, that's totally TMI for my theory, but it was fun.
If Hoenheim knows a lot about HT, he would probably keep his eyes out for people who are doing that sort of thing. Somehow, someone knew about Bruce's HT enough to create a homunculus of the failure. I suspect that person to be Hoenheim.
So, he finds out that a guy tried a HT and didn't lose a brother, a limb, or an internal organ. He is intrigued. As he sniffs around, he discovers that these people are, in fact, protected by Ishvara (ref ep 18), even in The Gate, which Hoenheim has probably never seen.
Whether he goes to the military like a tattletale, or to request funding for research into the whole red-eyes thing is unknown. But the higher-ups in the military discover what happened, and they begin their machinations to start a war.
Doesn't matter the catalyst, as long as Ishval attacks first, the military can whine "They started it!" and take out the entire nation. Or, they could claim that Ishval has weapons of mass destruction. Heheh. Don't get me started :P
Even Scar was surprised that there were as many Ishval survivors as there were. And then Sloth has some guys go out trying to wipe out those survivors. They are only stopped by the combined forces of Scar, Al, and Ed. (Everybody say "Aww!")
Now, again, she knows where the Ishval people are. And now Roy has been sent to wipe them out. Technically his orders are to arrest Scar, but they all know what's really going to happen. I hope Roy feels enough remorse about his prior Ishval actions to not randomly set people on fire. It's impolite.
So, there you go.
Now, it's time for me to hold tightly to the belief that Scar is too important to the plot to be killed by Roy. Scar has apologized for non-killing actions before, maybe he'll apologize - well, no, I don't think he should. General Gran was a rat-bastard and I'm glad Scar killed him. And by all accounts, Roy sorta deserves the Arm-O-Doom. He killed Winry's parents and he killed an Ishval child, along with randomly setting things on fire. It reminds me of that movie - I think Tom Cruise was in it, and he's a lawyer in the Marines, and they're courtmartialing a kid for doing something his superior officer told him to do, and he's found guilty because even though he was told to, he should have known better.
Course, that wasn't an enemy soldier, it was a guy in that guy's platoon. Still, that's what it reminds me of. Roy did know better, but he did it anyway. That's why he almost shoots himself in the flashback in ep I think 15.
So, even though Roy is planning on taking over the military to change it for the better, his past actions still deserve the Arm-O-Doom.
And, if Scar is supposed to forgive Roy's past based on his remorse and desire to set things right, then Roy (and Ed) will have to forgive Scar. Right? Hahahaha, OK, fine, I'm just grasping at straws here :) But I want them to all work together! They have to! They're all too cute not to!!